In summary the market is still delicately balanced between supply and demand. The Chinese market is starting to get back into gear after Chinese New Year (CNY), inventory has grown from around 3 million mid-January to in excess of 4 million post CNY which may put pressure on CFR prices.
Demand in China still remains soft and unlikely to improve and there is still much uncertainty regarding what Trump will do with tariffs. Despite this, one exporter I spoke to believes tariffs will not affect demand. AWG prices $NZ are still healthy driven by still favourable fx and shipping rates. There is no sign yet that shipping rates will increase post CNY as expected.
Back home, there are more positive signs of increased residential building activity as interest rates ease. Domestic sawmills are all back into action and log demand is solid for both pruned and unpruned. Pricing remains relatively flat from Q3 and Q4.
