It looks like the export market correction has now reached the bottom, hopefully we now see some stabilisation and improvement in coming months.
Unfortunately, there are no changes in the market fundamentals (demand) that would indicate that we will see significant improvement in log prices this month.
At current levels ($98-$108/Jas m3 NI and $94-$104/Jas m3 SI) Forest owners’ stumpages will remain squeezed and production will remain constrained, particularly in the Woodlot segment.
The consensus amongst exporters is we may see a small lift approximately $2-4/Jas m3 in May, this is not driven by any market sediment but small changes in FX.
There will be no improvement in Forest owner appetite to harvest more volume or start new blocks at these prices. It is generally accepted that prices would have to exceed $120/Jas m3 for forest owner sentiment to change.
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